[chottala.com] Delhi worries on Hasina’s popularity slide

Delhi worries on Hasina's popularity slide

The Times of India published an article entitled 'India's worries
could mount with Khaleda Zia'a expected return to power in Bangladesh'
on August 29, 2012. It said that the India intelligence agencies were
very worried at the rapid decline in popularity of the incumbent Awami
League government and the expected return to power by BNP.

The article mentions: "New Delhi has got unprecedented cooperation
from the Hasina regime in busting the havens of Indian insurgent
groups in her country as well as in the investigation of terror
incidents with Bangladeshi linkages. However, as the popularity of the
Awami League regime under Hasina dips, ceding ground to rival BNP, the
agencies fear that the gains of the last few years may be reversed if
Khaleda regains power."

It added: "Obviously, the Indian security establishment is keen to
arrest the slide in Awami League's popularity. Though there is little
it can do to reverse the incumbency disadvantage, a positive
development on the Teesta water-sharing pact, financial assistance for
the Padma Bridge project and exchange of enclaves may go a long way in
correcting the negative perception in Bangladesh that Hasina has not
managed any major concessions from India. However, these will be
possible only after UPA's troublesome ally, the Trinamool Congress, is
convinced to drop its reservations on Teesta and the enclaves…..Even
as efforts will intensify over the next year to recover lost ground
for Hasina, senior intelligence officials here claimed that Khaleda's
BNP alliance, saddled by corruption cases and expected conviction of
its leaders by war crimes tribunals, could see a reversal in its
growing popular perception closer to the polls, expected sometime in
February 2014."

Uncharitable, obscene
This article is followed by more than four hundred comments from the
readers, an overwhelming majority of whom are Indians. The language
used by the Indians to demean the Bangladeshis is mostly uncharitable
and obscene. It is obvious that most of them think that Bangladesh is
still a 'basket case' and is dependent on Indian charity for its
survival. The poor Indians seem to be oblivious of the fact that
Bangladesh has surpassed India in almost all social and economic
indices and in fact this year has left India behind in GDP growth
rate. Industrial growth in India is plummeting while it is fast rising
in Bangladesh.

Indians know nothing about the tremendous progress Bangladesh has made
in the recent years. They treat Bangladesh as a poor cousin of Eastern
India which in turn is treated as a poor cousin of Western India.
While India as a whole is communal, Eastern India is even more
communal. It is common in this region for those who are considered to
be of low cast to be submissive to the upper class Brahmins to be
punished or even be killed. Thus like the lower caste Hindus,
Bangladeshis have no business to be prosperous or successful and this
may give rise to the anger and envy they feel towards Bangladesh.

India will most definitely try their best to hold on to their assets
in Bangladesh by influencing the public opinion whichever way they
can. Ruthless persecution of the opposition parties seems to be high
on their "to do" list. But this is unlikely to deliver the desired
result as people tend to forget that what happened more than five
years ago and are more likely to be influenced by the government's
inaction on a number of corruption and law and order issues that is
plaguing the country today.

The only option left for India is to impress upon the western
countries to allow the holding of the next general elections under the
present Awami League government. This is the only way that Awami
League can hold on to power. On the other hand, losing the next
elections is not an option for this party. The Awami League is exactly
in the same boat as the Caretaker Government of Fakhruddin and
Moinuddin, a BNP victory in the 2014 General Elections will be very
unhealthy for all the beneficiaries of the current government, exactly
as a BNP victory in 2008 would have been to the last Caretaker
Government. A defeat in the next elections is not an option for the
Awami League and with its growing isolation, it will have to be more
dependent on Indian support.

India's NE strategy
India on the other hand has not been able to extract the desired
tangible advantages that it wanted of Bangladesh. The Indian
intelligence report clearly exposes their need for Bangladesh support
to hold on to their remote north eastern territories. It is ridiculous
to claim that insurgents there need Bangladesh support to fight Indian
control there. If the Maoists in central India can effectively fight
the powerful Indian army without any external support, it is most
unlikely that the much better organised, far more experienced
insurgents fighting in some of the most inhospitable terrains in Asia
will need the support of Bangladesh.

On the contrary, the Indian army, whose recruits are mostly from the
plains, do need easy access to these hilly battlegrounds which only
Bangladesh can provide. India needs transit through Bangladesh for
quick, and more importantly, cheap transport of weapons and personnel
to their remote north-eastern battlegrounds.
Certain developments in India have not been advantageous for the Awami
League. The departure of "Kakababu" Pranab Mukherjee from the Indian
central cabinet and the rise to power by Mamata Banerjee has left
Awami League with no powerful friends in New Delhi. This means that
India will not be able to oblige Bangladesh with anything that would
be seen as a friendly gesture, i.e., Teesta Barrage waters or the
exchange of enclaves. This would mean that India would be pressing for
long term concessions from the Awami League without giving anything in
return. The way things are in the country now, the Awami League may
have to do just that if it wishes to stay in power.

http://www.weeklyholiday.net/Homepage/Pages/UserHome.aspx
September 07, 2012


------------------------------------

[* Moderator's Note - CHOTTALA is a non-profit, non-religious, non-political and non-discriminatory organization.

* Disclaimer: Any posting to the CHOTTALA are the opinion of the author. Authors of the messages to the CHOTTALA are responsible for the accuracy of their information and the conformance of their material with applicable copyright and other laws. Many people will read your post, and it will be archived for a very long time. The act of posting to the CHOTTALA indicates the subscriber's agreement to accept the adjudications of the moderator]
Yahoo! Groups Links

<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/chottala/

<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional

<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/chottala/join
(Yahoo! ID required)

<*> To change settings via email:
chottala-digest@yahoogroups.com
chottala-fullfeatured@yahoogroups.com

<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
chottala-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/