If John McCain's supporters are hoping for a "Bradley effect" bounce on Election Day, some pollsters and strategists say they may have another thing coming.
Beware of the "bandwagon effect."
While the Bradley effect posits that some white voters who tell pollsters that they will vote for a black candidate often have second thoughts in the voting booth, the "bandwagon effect" suggests that a small but significant number of persuadable voters will decide at the last minute to go with the winner.
As with the Bradley effect, the "bandwagon effect" is hard to measure or prove.
Pollster John Zogby is skeptical of the bandwagon theory and says voters always say it's someone else who votes that way.
"'No, no, no, not me,'" he said they say. "'It's the stupid people across the street.'"
But it's not quite that simple.
Academics who have spent years researching the nexus of polling and voter behavior say that it takes a change in poll numbers to get voters jumping on board — or at least thinking about it. If the tide turns toward a candidate, persuadable — but previously unpersuaded — voters begin to ask what they've been missing.
"The original bandwagon theory is that people don't want to miss the party," said Samuel Popkin, a political scientist at the University of California at San Diego and the author of "The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns."
"There will be somebody in the end who says, 'I don't want to vote for him because he's black, but McCain's going to lose so I'll vote for him to tell my grandkids I did,'" Popkin said.
But, he added: "I think what's more likely is if you see a poll that says people in your congressional district have changed, you're going to say, 'What's going on?' ... If you read in the paper [that] Obama's crowds are bigger than ever, his lead is growing, you think, 'I better double check. What have I missed? What's new that I didn't know?'"
Popkin said Obama's rise in the polls is just the kind of movement that would cause a voter to reevaluate, creating a positive feedback loop where more support begets more support. The reverse is true on John McCain's side: The more he drops, the more people reassess him.
On the other hand, if McCain surges in the polls in the last few days before the election, the bandwagon effect could have voters reconsidering and jumping off the Obama train.
Of course, voters are unpredictable, and a theory doesn't always survive real-world tests.
To analyze the nuances of the bandwagon theory, Diana C. Mutz, a political scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, presented study subjects with descriptions of candidates and then told them that they had varying levels of popularity. Told that a candidate was popular, the theoretical voters would explain the popularity by focusing on the candidate's strengths. "We naturally try to explain our environment," said Mutz.
Given the current environment, swing voters may now find themselves explaining to themselves why Obama seems so popular. The campaign is ready with the outlines of an answer: He's cool under pressure, represents change, etc.
To encourage the bandwagon effect, Popkin said that a campaign should send a signal to voters that others like them have made the change, too. One example: an ad for Republican candidate William Russell currently running in Democratic Rep. John P. Murtha's Pennsylvania district. In it, a woman says, "Dear Mr. Murtha. I've always voted for you, but not this time."
Mutz said that in a "high information" race like this year's presidential contest, voters are unlikely to jump mindlessly on a bandwagon.
However, she said that when people "learn of a candidate's popularity, they are prompted to reconsider their own views in light of the kinds of explanations for this popularity that they can obtain from their environments."
If the explanation for a candidate's rise lacks substance, she said, then it's unlikely to influence a voter. For example, she suggested that if voters perceive that Obama's rise is due to a huge influx of money, they're not likely to be persuaded. But if they sense that his surge is founded on a well-run campaign and a smooth temperament, then they might be.
If Obama were sinking in the polls, voters would be looking for negative characteristics about him — and positive ones about McCain — to explain that environment. The McCain campaign would be ready with both: Obama's too liberal, too inexperienced, etc., while McCain's a hero, a straight-talker and a leader.
Editors and reporters, being human, are not exempt from the phenomenon. When a candidate is surging, editors might lean toward assigning stories that explain the rise in popularity. A flagging candidate comes in for rougher treatment as reporters look to explain the new climate. As Obama has performed better in the polls, he's been on the receiving end of a significantly greater number of positive stories than McCain.
"Information about who is leading or gaining ground simply serves as a catalyst to cause people to mentally rehearse more positive arguments than they otherwise would have," Mutz said.
"I've actually seen the opposite reaction," said Republican strategist Ed Goeas. "Every time it seems like Obama's definitely going to win, it narrows, almost like there's a buyer's remorse."
While the politically savvy may scoff at the idea that people are voting based on popularity, Mutz says the notion of being influenced by others isn't so unusual when taken out of the context of politics.
"It's not at all stupid to rely on consensus," she said. "If everyone's saying that a particular restaurant is horrible, are you going to insist on going there yourself? The idea that we shouldn't turn to others for help in decision making is kind of dumb in some ways."
Even if we won't admit it.
"Some people are proud of being a racist," said a Democratic strategist. "Nobody's proud of being a lemming."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/15070
Play Video ABC News – The Generational Voter Gap
Play Video ABC News – The Generational Voter Gap
CNN - Thu Oct 30, 6:01 AM ET
The McCain campaign is questioning Barack Obama's ties with a former university professor. CNN's Tom Foreman reports
http://news.yahoo.com/video/2469;_ylt=AvewbIAuP0va0j2rP666HkLCw5R4
View: | |
- Pres. Clinton Campaigns With Obama in Fla. AP - Thu Oct 30, 10:34 AM ET
Former President Bill Clinton joined Sen. Barack Obama at a rally in Florida, just days before the presidential election. The appearance coincided with a 30 minute Obama campaign commercial that aired on several networks. (Oct. 30)
- The Real Cindy McCain ABC News - 2 hours, 44 minutes ago
A profile of the potential next first lady of the United States.
- Palin effigy comes down from Halloween display CBS 2 / KCAL 9 Los Angeles - Thu Oct 30, 2:35 AM ET
It was a controversial political display that caused a nationwide uproar. Suraya Fadel reports.
- How to track the election CNN - 1 hour, 15 minutes ago
CNN's Errol Barnett surfs over political maps and polls that will help worldwide viewers follow the U.S. election.
- Obama And McCain Go After Party Faithful Vote CBS4 Miami - 1 hour, 17 minutes ago
GOP presidential nominee McCain and Democratic rival Obama each used today's report of a shrinking U.S. economy to argue for their candidacy.
- Obama defends tax plan AP - 1 hour, 19 minutes ago
Campaigning in Florida Thursday, Barack Obama attempted to clear up any 'misinformation' about his proposed tax plan. (Oct. 30)
- Emotions run high for Obama CNN - 1 hour, 30 minutes ago
CNN's Lola Ogunnaike talks to African-Americans in Brooklyn about their feelings toward Sen. Obama.
- Obama plan is 'big government' CNN - 1 hour, 45 minutes ago
Gov. Sarah Palin calls Sen. Barack Obama's plan for the economy "big government."
- Young voters going extra mile to cast ballots AP - 2 hours, 13 minutes ago
With recent election debacles still fresh in the minds of young voters, they're going the extra mile to make sure their votes are cast and counted. (Oct. 30)
- Number Crunching FOX News - 43 minutes ago
Should voters trust polls ahead of election?
- Ex-Campaign Volunteer Declared Competent For Trial KDKA Pittsburgh - 48 minutes ago
A ex-volunteer for the McCain campaign was in court for a hearing after claiming that she was the victim of a politically-motivated attack and later confessed to making the story up; KDKA's Bob Allen has the latest.
- Cornyn on relationship between banks and gov't KVUE-TV Austin - 50 minutes ago
In an effort to expand our political coverage, and as part of a project through KVUE's parent company Belo, we are offering one minute of unedited airtime to qualified candidates for the U.S. Senate. It's called "It's Your Time" and its a way to help candidates share their views on several important issues. The unprecedented events on wall street in recent weeks have raised fundamental questions about our economic system. We asked Senator John Cornyn what is the appropriate relationship between the federal
- Effigies of Obama leave many outraged and embarrassed WHAS TV11 Louisville - 1 hour, 3 minutes ago
After a man in Clarksville, Indiana hung up a Barack Obama doll with a noose this week, critics say what's really scary is how the racially charged image was excused as a Halloween decoration.
- Palin: 'There's ... Been Double Standards' ABC News - 2 hours, 14 minutes ago
The GOP vice presidential candidate addresses the media's perception of her.
- The Generational Voter Gap ABC News - 2 hours, 15 minutes ago
Florida's electoral votes may come down to older versus younger voters.
- McCain links Obama to oil profits AP - 2 hours, 28 minutes ago
John McCain seized on record oil company profit reports to draw a sharp new distinction with Democratic rival Barack Obama, saying Obama's rhetoric masks his votes backing new tax breaks for the industry. (Oct. 30)
- Did Obama score on primetime? 11 News Houston - 2 hours, 30 minutes ago
CNN media critic Howard Kurtz tells Harry Smith that the Barack Obama TV spot was well produced, but perhaps over produced in some ways.
- Biden starts Obama campaign's day in Mo. KMOV Channel 4 St. Louis - 2 hours, 41 minutes ago
Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama and running mate Joe Biden were both heading Thursday to campaign events in Missouri, rallying party support in a state where the race remains a toss-up.
- Failing Grade? FOX News - 2 hours, 44 minutes ago
Would Barack Obama pass FBI and CIA background checks if he weren't running for president?
- Fair and Balanced? FOX News - 2 hours, 44 minutes ago
No matter who wins the White House, did 'objective journalism' lose the 2008 election?
- John Mellencamp Gets Political ABC News - 2 hours, 44 minutes ago
The singer voices his opinion on this year's election.
- The US elections seen from Afghanistan AFP - 2 hours, 53 minutes ago
They may not be able to vote in the US elections, but Afghans say they have just as much at stake as Americans themselves. Watching from the sidelines, many Afghans hope the next US president will boost foreign commitment to solving their country¿s problems.
- Florida Voters Key to Victory ABC News - Thu Oct 30, 10:31 AM ET
27 electoral votes make this state vital to capturing the presidency.
- Voters Line Up In Norwalk To Cast Their Ballots CBS 2 / KCAL 9 Los Angeles - Thu Oct 30, 10:07 AM ET
With the election less than a week away, people are already casting their votes. Dave Mecham reports.
- Why Is Ohio Important? ABC News - Thu Oct 30, 9:32 AM ET
Both campaigns are pulling out all the stops for this battleground state.
- Clinton: 'Obama Will Bring Us Together' ABC News - Thu Oct 30, 9:31 AM ET
The former president talks about the upcoming election.
- Race for Senate gets uglier WCNC Charlotte - Thu Oct 30, 9:24 AM ET
In a Senate race that's been ugly now for months, there is a new ad that's getting attention on the airwaves.
- Palin on Obama's Patriotism ABC News - Thu Oct 30, 9:01 AM ET
The GOP vice presidential candidate addresses attacks made on the senator.
- Jake Tapper Reacts to Obama Ad ABC News - Thu Oct 30, 8:32 AM ET
The senator hopes his multimillion dollar infomercial will put him over the top.
- Thomas Jefferson Middle School Mock Election WHAS TV11 Louisville - Thu Oct 30, 8:22 AM ET
Students at Thomas Jefferson Middle School are participating in a mock election and learning how the voting process works.
- Potshots Over Polls - Is NYC Ready For Nov. 4? CBS 2 New York - Thu Oct 30, 8:18 AM ET
Expected record voter turnout on November 4 is raising concerns that New York City polling places are just not ready. CBS 2's Christine Sloan has more from the Board of Elections office in Lower Manhattan.
- Presidential Politics KVUE-TV Austin - Thu Oct 30, 8:05 AM ET
In the race to the Whitehouse 5 days and counting now until election day. Polls continue to show Barack Obama leading John Mccain. But what if the polls are missing something?
- Sen. Ted Stevens returns to Alaska AP - Thu Oct 30, 8:01 AM ET
A defiant Sen. Ted Stevens returned to his home state Wednesday a convicted felon, telling cheering supporters at an airport that bears his name that he's innocent and vowing he will be vindicated. (Oct. 30)
- Bill Clinton Campaigning In Minn. Thursday WCCO Minneapolis - Thu Oct 30, 7:47 AM ET
Former President Bill Clinton will be in Minneapolis Thursday, campaigning for Barack Obama and Al Franken, Sue Turner reports (2:56).
- Ivory Coast elections postponed yet again AFP - Thu Oct 30, 7:18 AM ET
Presidential elections in Ivory Coast, planned for November 30, have been postponed until next spring at the earliest. The reason for the latest delay: the failure to get identity papers to all eligible voters by the deadline October 30.
- Bill Clinton rallies for Obama Reuters - Thu Oct 30, 6:59 AM ET
Barack Obama and Bill Clinton make first joint campaign appearance before more than 30,000 in late-night Miami rally.
- Former Campaign Volunteer To Have Hearing CBS 2 Chicago - Thu Oct 30, 6:52 AM ET
A McCain campaign volunteer who made national headlines last week after claiming she was the victim of a politically-motivated attack and later admitted to making up the story will be in court today; KDKA's Bob Allen reports.
- Obama hits trail, airwaves CNN - Thu Oct 30, 6:01 AM ET
CNN's Candy Crowley reports the Obama campaign is pulling out the stops, including an infomercial, in the final days.
- Palin Effigy Comes Down From WeHo Home CBS 2 / KCAL 9 Los Angeles - Thu Oct 30, 2:35 AM ET
It was a controversial political display that caused a nationwide uproar. Suraya Fadel reports.
