[chottala.com] Transit: Opportunity or threat?

Transit: Opportunity or threat?

By Dr. Afzalur Rahman

While the government of Bangladesh is dedicated to providing transit
services to India, the people are anxious as of numerous whys and
wherefores. Internal politics of Bangladesh has been divided on the
issue related to the developments, regarding the unhindered
transportation of goods between Indian cities especially from the
Kolkata to Tripura by using the roads and river transportation system
of Bangladesh.
India has been asking Bangladesh for transit since the earlier 90's.

Today the possibility of having transit facility for India is actually
on the verge of reality. However, there are innumerable questions
hovering around the issue of transit that will not make it an easy
decision for Bangladesh government to grant the transit to India. The
process of transit will not be possibly occurring until all the
irritants between India and Bangladesh are resolved. Also there is
little possibility for Bangladesh to achieve optimum benefits from the
transit. The proposal made by India to use the port of Ashuganj and
Chittagong has triggered controversies and uncertainties.

The previous Prime Minister and current opposition leader Khaleda Zia
articulated her trepidation very lately on October 27 last year that
by providing transit to India, the existing government is trying to
turn Bangladesh into another 'Sikkim'. The governing party as well as
the pro-Indian Lobby in Bangladesh would illustrate this accusation as
one more groundless 'anti-Indian upsurge' via Khaleda Zia;
nevertheless in authenticity she has merely specified opinion to the
apprehensions of some Bangladeshi citizens. Meanwhile the transit
subjects have countless wrinkle allegations, counting national
welfares and sovereign status as per a state, it is authoritative to
acquire a strong or vibrant image of the matters tangled and similarly
by what means we can reply to the encounters forced from external but
with the involvement and associations of a segment of the presiding
government.

Why India requires transit amenities?Cost effective entry to the
Northeast states

It is a terrestrial realism that Bangladesh is 'India locked' as it is
enclosed on three edges by Indian terrains. On similar logic, the
northeast states such as Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur,
Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Tripura of India are 'Bangladesh
locked'. The purported 'Chicken's Neck' unraveling Bangladesh and
Nepal is the lone thin strip of terrestrial about 24 km in breadth
that attaches West Bengal and mainland India through the northeast
states. Carriage of goods and people over the 'Chicken's Neck' is
actually very exclusive and time overwhelming. This delays India's
entry to the resource-rich northeast. Transit amenities over
Bangladesh would be tranquil, less time consuming while there will be
less expenditure by saving two-thirds of the present cost of India
which is US$100 billion.

Eradicating NE Rebellion extortions
India has been struggling rebellion activities in the north east
province for quite some time. Populates living in these zones are
historically, ethnically, religiously, culturally dissimilar from
persons living in mainland India. These people have continuously
valued their liberation and conducted numerous fights as well as armed
fights to recognise their rights. These skirmishes are ongoing even
nowadays. India contemplates these actions dangerous to its
territorial integrity and safety, desiring to overpower them at any
price. Movement of armed people and transport of weaponries over
Bangladesh would be much at ease for India to defeat these revolution
intimidations.

Forearmed against military conflict with China
India has venerable provincial disparities with China, in the
northwest and northeast regions of the Himalayan mountain array. In
the northeast, the argument over Arunachal Pradesh (which the Chinese
call Zhangnan or South Tibet) is still unsolved. Whether the subject
matter would be stable cordially and peacefully cannot be predicted,
but India is not taking any probabilities. It has been firming up its
defense and offense readiness in these provinces for ages,
particularly after the dreadful 1962 border war with China. In recent
years, India has been assigning vast resources for the transformation
and development of its armed forces. In the northeast, strategies are
being applied to enlarge the current competences by increasing an
additional 100,000 armed forces with two divisions for mountain
conflict and special operations.

Entry to Myanmar market
Myanmar, located to the east and south east of both Bangladesh and
India, is full of natural resources including oil and gas both on the
land and in the ocean. It has also incredible prospects for harnessing
hydroelectric power. For these resources and also for tactical
motives, straight contacts and entry to Myanmar is very vital to both
China and India, the two financial or economic and military giants of
Asia. China at present has straight terrestrial routes to Myanmar, but
India has nothing of this calibre. India desires to counterbalance
this drawback by having straight terrestrial routes from its northeast
to Myanmar.None of these necessities as well as India's geo-strategic
desires in the East can be achieved without a widespread transit
arrangement through Bangladesh.

Transit with India: benefits and risks:Potential benefits:

In the form of transports like trucks and freight trains and usage of
the Chittagong and Mongla port of Bangladesh, Indian carriers are
needed to pay sums of transit fee every time they use the passage
through Bangladesh. It is reported by BBC news that the transit route
through Akhaura border post only could be worth a billion dollars once
Indian trucks use Bangladesh as passage to their north eastern wing of
India.

It is believed that once the transit is agreed many backward areas of
Bangladesh will be benefitted due to the route of the transit.
Investment in road and railway communication may develop along remote
parts of the country through which the trucks or freight trains will
pass. Apart from the development of road and rail communication,
businesses like residential hotels, restaurants, shops may open up
alongside these newly built roads for the transit of Indian goods
through Bangladesh.
It is believed that transit will open up new business which will
create employment beside the transit route which will eventually
benefit the neglected regions and help in the development of those
regions by improving their lifestyle. Transit can create scope for
Bangladesh traders as well as businesses to get access to Indian
market through the same route to do business which they could not
perform or get access easily earlier. It can be the doorway to reach
markets of Nepal and Bhutan of the South Asian region where
Bangladeshi goods have huge demand.

Transit fee can be used to construct new roads and highways and
improve the current infrastructure to support the transit of Indian
goods trucks and freights to pass through and which can also be used
by Bangladeshi freight vehicles. Besides roads and highways in the
development list, the seaports and rail lines may be developed to
provide transit access which will eventually benefit Bangladesh and
its people.

Mongla and Chittagong port which is mostly unused at the moment can be
made to run in maximum capacity with the allowance of transit to
Indian products through Bangladesh and through this process Bangladesh
may earn more money and further use this extra money to develop the
ports infrastructure into an international standard port. Moreover,
many argue that transit can be used as a tool to resolve many disputed
treaties between the two neighbors, especially Bangladesh may use this
tool to resolve the border and maritime disputes it has with neighbour
India.

Potential risks:
Some quarters argue that the transit may bring in some low points for
Bangladesh also. To begin with, the transit may cost Bangladesh
government a huge sum of money to invest in its infrastructure. About
US$10 billion in investment is needed to get the highways and roads in
proper order for the Indian trucks to ply on these.
Many are skeptical of how much transit fee the government will charge
for the passage of Indian trucks through Bangladesh. There is a risk
of under charging the transit fee and Bangladesh may end up being the
loser.

A lot of Bangladeshi businesses are worried that formal and informal
businesses that they do with the north eastern part of India will
diminish as Indian goods will get easy access to the region. Moreover,
the transit of Bangladeshi goods to Nepal and Bhutan will not do much
benefit to Bangladeshi businesses as they have a very small market in
these countries.

The petroleum prices between both the nations are not same. So, Indian
trucks may enter Bangladesh to refuel them and use up a huge quantity
of petroleum leading to its shortage, forcing Bangladesh to import
further petroleum. This will exert pressure on the foreign exchange
reserve.

There is a great risk of smuggling of goods into Bangladesh without
payment of proper tax and the market will be overwhelmed with goods
from India which will cause Bangladeshi businesses to suffer
financially.

A potential security risk of Bangladesh exists due to the possibility
of drugs and arms to be smuggled into in huge quantity. Moreover, the
flooding of drugs may damage the youth of our country severely.

The increase of HIV/Aids patients may triple or quadruple due to the
Indian truck drivers as they are notoriously famous of HIV/Aids
carriers.Security threats from separatist rebels like United
Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) attacks can't be ruled out as they
may see Bangladesh helping India to carry weapons and arms to
strengthen the north eastern region of India.

Way forward…
The people of Bangladesh must hold upon the government and all the
opposition political parties for harmony on dynamic national issues,
particularly while it arises to defend the national welfares and
sovereignty from overseas force and control. Simply this union will
reinforce country's negotiating situation with India and other
countries and safeguard the fact that Bangladesh does not convert into
a 'satellite state' of India or undergo the fate of 'Sikkim'. The
economic and social welfares of Bangladesh over permitting transit to
India need to be very transparent to the people of Bangladesh. Till
this is completed, unfriendly inspired people will endure to misguide
public through publicity and make it tremendously tough for the
politicians. Still, as a motion of generosity, through the common
endorsement of terms and conditions on situation to situation basis,
Bangladesh may approve to offer opening through its terrain
non-commercial cargoes, merchandises and equipment concerning any
public sector mission for trade and economic growth.

- The writer is an Adjunct Assistant Professor at East West University

http://newagebd.com/supliment.php?sid=115&id=842


------------------------------------

[* Moderator's Note - CHOTTALA is a non-profit, non-religious, non-political and non-discriminatory organization.

* Disclaimer: Any posting to the CHOTTALA are the opinion of the author. Authors of the messages to the CHOTTALA are responsible for the accuracy of their information and the conformance of their material with applicable copyright and other laws. Many people will read your post, and it will be archived for a very long time. The act of posting to the CHOTTALA indicates the subscriber's agreement to accept the adjudications of the moderator]
Yahoo! Groups Links

<*> To visit your group on the web, go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/chottala/

<*> Your email settings:
Individual Email | Traditional

<*> To change settings online go to:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/chottala/join
(Yahoo! ID required)

<*> To change settings via email:
chottala-digest@yahoogroups.com
chottala-fullfeatured@yahoogroups.com

<*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
chottala-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

<*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to:
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/