Clinton Defeats Obama in Primary;
McCain Takes Republican Contest
January 9, 2008
NASHUA, N.H. -- After a fierce battle for the first-in-the-nation primary, New Hampshire voters chose Washington stalwarts Sen. John McCain and Sen. Hillary Clinton and their message that only decades of experience can bring about change -- the buzzword of this year's presidential race.
The big battle here played out in the contest for the Democratic nomination between Mrs. Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama, who had soared on the momentum of his decisive win in the Iowa caucuses last week. Earlier today polls showed Mrs. Clinton trailing Mr. Obama by as many as 13 percentage points.
![[SSP_Supporters.jpg]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-AX198_SSP_Su_20080108210126.jpg) |
| McCain supporters react to election results at the campaign's headquarters in Nashua, N.H. |
But tonight, Mrs. Clinton was handed a surprise victory with 39% of the vote compared with 36% for Mr. Obama and 17% for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.
"I felt like we all spoke from our hearts and I am so gratified that you responded,'' Mrs. Clinton told a cheering crowd of supporters. "Now together, let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me."
When the race was called at 10:34 p.m., Clinton supporters jumped up and down, hugged each other and waved signs that said "Clinton Country." They shouted "Hillary! Hillary!" Mr. and Mrs. Clinton spent the next hour shaking hands and talking to supporters.
"I feel wonderful," said Clinton supporter Sue Lajoie, 60 and a retired schoolteacher who says she was worried earlier today when polls showed Mrs. Clinton trailing Mr. Obama. "I hoped people wouldn't be persuaded by all the hype for Obama," she said.
On the Republican side, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, once seen as a natural to take neighboring New Hampshire, came in second with 28%, a possibly fatal blow to his bid for the presidency. Mike Huckabee, who took a surprising first-place in Iowa, struggled to connect with New Hampshire voters who tend to be less likely to accept his religious message. He finished with 12% of the vote. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani finished with 9%, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who took 8%.
Unseasonably warm weather along with the fierce contests boosted voter turnout to record numbers. With temperatures reaching 61 degrees at the Manchester airport today, some 500,000 voters or 48% of the total voting age population cast ballots, compared with 44.4% in 2004 and 29.9% in 2000. Some 280,000 voters cast Democratic ballots and 220,000 voted in the Republican contest.
The mild weather could have helped Mrs. Clinton, who gets strong support among older female voters who might be reluctant to take the trip to their polling places in stormy weather.
| John McCain claimed victory in the Republican New Hampshire primary. |
With no incumbent on the ballot, the open field has energized voters here, where particular attention has been paid to the state's independent voters, who make up about 45% of the electorate. An independent can vote either as a Republican or Democrat.
Exit polls showed independent voters broke towards the Democrats, attracted to Mr. Obama's message of breaking the status quo in Washington. Altogether, 46% of Mr. Obama's support came from independent voters. An early sign that independent voters were trending Democratic came this morning as the New Hampshire Secretary of State's office dispatched additional ballots -- mostly Democratic ballots -- to a half dozen towns across the state.
"I've never seen this many people voting in the primary," said Ken Fanjoy, a 53-year-old union worker from Seabrook who backed Mrs. Clinton.
With the theme of the presidential race focused on change, all the leading candidates in both parties invoked the word on the campaign trail, in their ads and in their attacks. The word "change" popped up some 130 times during the back-to-back ABC News-Facebook debates that aired nationwide Saturday night.
While the Republicans and Democrats are far apart on nearly all of the issues, the political dynamic in both fields has shaped up to be strikingly similar here in their rhetoric on change. Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney offered similar arguments that they aren't part of the Washington machine, and as outsiders can bring about the most fundamental change. Mr. McCain and Mrs. Clinton similarly countered that change can only be brought by an experienced hand.
But rivals had criticized Mrs. Clinton's and Mr. McCain's messages and their ability to bring about real change. During the Democratic debate on Saturday, Mr. Edwards referred to Mrs. Clinton as "the status quo."
The third leading Democrat, Mr. Edwards, campaigned hard in New Hampshire, but couldn't edge out Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Obama. Mr. Edwards entered New Hampshire weakened by his second-place finish in Iowa, where he had focused nearly all of his time and money. At 10:20 p.m. EST before the Democratic race had been called, Mr. Edwards congratulated Mrs. Clinton.
Following her third-place finish in Iowa, Mrs. Clinton has heavily focused on her theme that change only comes with her "35 years of experience." "When did experience be come a liability?" a frustrated Mrs. Clinton said on the stump Monday.
Mrs. Clinton also tried to better reach out to younger voters, many of whom have been supporting Mr. Obama. She changed some of her campaign music and brought her 27-year-old daughter Chelsea on the campaign trail. People close to the Clinton campaign have said that if Mrs. Clinton didn't win, a management reshuffling could be expected.
Mrs. Clinton also had a much-publicized moment Monday when she choked up at an event in Portsmouth after an undecided voter asked how she balances her life on the trail. "It's about our country, it's about our kids' futures, it's really about all of us together," she said, tears welling in her eyes.
While Clinton detractors suggested the moment could further damage her prospects here, for some voters it showed a more human side of the former first lady that may have made her more likeable, particularly with women. Mrs. Clinton captured nearly 50% of the female vote, a sharp increase from the Iowa results where younger women largely opted for Mr. Obama.
Showing her more sensitive side certainly played well with voters like Dolores Felch, 53-years-old of Seabrook. "I voted for Hillary Clinton. I was with Edwards last night when he was making fun of her emotional thing…he's a jerk," Ms. Felch said. "I don't like Obama, he's just a talker."
The Clinton campaign also sharpened its attacks on Mr. Obama's inexperience in recent days. On Sunday senior Clinton campaign officials held a much-publicized conference call with reporters to assert that the Obama campaign had violated New Hampshire law by sending prerecorded political messages to voters on a do-not-call list.
"Our disclaimer absolutely complies with the federal law, and our vendor has assured us that he scrubbed the list for people on the do-not-call registry," said Ned Helms, state co-chairman of the Obama campaign.
Today former President Bill Clinton critiqued Mr. Obama's record while stumping for his wife throughout the state, calling Mr. Obama's candidacy "the biggest fairy tale I have ever seen."
In the end, it was Mr. Obama's lack of experience that made many voters opt for the more seasoned Mrs. Clinton. "I like him and I think he'll be ready in eight years," said Allison Mundry, a 49-year-old real estate agent in Salem. But for now, she says "We have to vote for someone who can get the Republicans out of office.
The Illinois Senator will go on to South Carolina where half of all registered Democrats are African-American and could choose Mr. Obama, the first serious candidate to have a chance at the White House.
The state's independent streak boded well for Mr. Obama, who had the most momentum heading into the primary following his decisive eight-point victory in Iowa. His campaign has stressed throughout the race that Mr. Obama is the candidate with the most cross-over appeal among Republican and right-leaning voters.
But many New Hampshire voters saw Mr. Obama as an inspirational speaker with little policy to back up his message of change. "I don't understand the Obama bandwagon at all," said Marianne Rork, 54 and a physical therapist in Londonderry. "He can rally a crowd, but he's not giving any details."
For Mr. McCain, New Hampshire was widely viewed as a make-or-break state. He has invested nearly all of his limited resources in New Hampshire, which he won in his 2000 bid against George W. Bush.
When the results came in at 8 p.m. EST, supporters at the McCain party at a Nashua hotel began chanting "Mac is Back! Mac is Back!"
"The lesson here and in Iowa is that negative ads don't work," said Matt Marchese, a McCain volunteer from nearby Massachusetts. "They worked in the past, but they turned into a huge Achillies' heal for Mitt Romney."
Bill Starner, from Windham, a McCain booster going back to the 2000 election said the expectant victory was especially satisfying after the campaign was "resurrected" last summer. "He got the mojo back," he said.
Victor Goulet, Mr. McCain's campaign chairman for Manchester, declared: "It's time to celebrate again." He attributed Mr. McCain's comeback to a strategy shift last summer that emphasized small events with voters.
Mr. McCain appeared energized by his comeback victory. "My friends, you know, I'm passed the age when I can claim the noun 'kid ' no matter what adjective precedes it. But tonight, we showed them what a comeback looks like."
He credited his signature blunt honesty for today's win. And in a dig at Mr. Romney, who rivals have accused him of shifting positions, Mr. McCain said, "I didn't tell you what the polls said you wanted to hear. I didn't tell you what I knew to be false. I didn't try to spin you."
![[Washington Wire]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/it_washington-wire01062006154536.gif){kind=small}
CAMPAIGN 2008He also made a nod to his own combative style, which appeals to independent-minded New Hampshire voters, but has failed in the past to ignite the national electorate. "I reasoned with you. I listened to you I answered you. Sometimes I argued with you. But I always told you the truth as best as I can see the truth and you did me the great honor of listening," he said.
The 71-year-old senator, who maintains one of the most packed schedules of any candidate, will leave New Hampshire early Wednesday morning. "We celebrate one victory tonight, and leave for Michigan tomorrow to win another."
Mr. Romney has seen his inevitability factor fade after a second-place finish in Iowa, despite spending heavily -- both dollars and time -- in the state. After that defeat, Mr. Romney pivoted, casting himself as a Washington outsider committed to change. That theme permeated a two-minute television ad that aired throughout the state Monday evening. Mr. Romney has also sought to lower expectations, saying this morning only that he expects a close race. "If I got two votes I wouldn't say 'Oh, let's go on to the next.' There's no reason to do that. But I'm in a position where I'm in a very tight race," he said.
Mr. Romney fashioned his concession speech after the remarks he delivered less than a week ago in Iowa. He used the same Olympics medal analogy, saying he had "two silvers and one gold" – the gold being the little-watched caucus he won over the weekend in Wyoming. Although handed two definitive defeats, Mr. Romney vowed to continue competing. "I'll fight to be back here in November," he said.
And while the speech in New Hampshire borrowed from his Iowa remarks, the former governor was more composed the second time around, perhaps because the defeat was more expected. He congratulated Mr. McCain both over the phone and to the crammed ballroom here. "Congratulations on the gold, senator. Great job," he said.
Yet the Mr. McCain victory casts some doubt on Mr. Romney's message. For the five days between the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, Mr. Romney harped on the need to "clean up Washington." He repeatedly cited the performance of Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain in Iowa as proof that voters reject Beltway insiders. Yet both candidates performed strongly Tuesday night, forcing the Romney campaign to rejigger their message yet again. "With John McCain, we're essentially running against an incumbent. He does have those institutional advantages," said spokesman Kevin Madden.
While former Arkansas Republican Gov. Huckabee handily won the Jan. 3 Iowa caucus, New Hampshire has a markedly different electorate. Iowa is home to a considerable bloc of conservative and evangelical voters, who heavily favored Mr. Huckabee.
Mr. Huckabee's brand of social conservatism didn't resonate as much in New Hampshire, but he nonetheless painted his distant third place finish as a victory, saying he did better than anyone thought "this old unknown Southern boy could possibly do in new England."
He promised to keep his message upbeat and positive as his campaign moves on to South Carolina, where a larger evangelical community gives him better odds in the Jan. 19 Republican primary. "We really need to take America up and not down and that's what we're going to continue to do," he told cheering supporters at a country club in Manchester.
The campaign travels to South Carolina in the morning and then onto Michigan on Friday, where he plans an address to the Detroit Economic Club.
"We're going to be able to secure this nomination," Huckabee said optimistically, "then on to the White House and on to leading America."
--Elizabeth Holmes, Brody Mullins and Amy Schatz contributed to this article
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