Political Roundup November 2007
Posted by Rumi under Politicshttp://rumiahmed.wordpress.com/2007/11/08/political-roundup-november-2007/#comments
Curent Status:
About to or already swallowed the bait set up by the military government.
RATS are back in full form and effectively in Control.
Conformist leaders like Motia chowdhury, Shahara Khatun, Abdul Matin Khasru, Subid Ali Bhuiya etc are mysteriously silent.
Getting ready for starting the partnership with the government. Alreday started local election process.
Party activists, intellectuals, well wishers are however gloriously against this military government.
Rationale:
Prefer pragmatism over idealism. Three bird in one stone. Make friendship with army, destroy BNP. Destroy Jamaat and thus destroy center rights election hopes.
Future:
1986 style election and credibility loss. Will in turn make Khaleda popular again.
Not Clear:
How they will handle Hasina. Can't go to election keeping Hasina in jail. Released of Hasina keeping Khaleda in jail will be suicide for both AL and king's party.
BNP
Current Status:
Set to be on the street for a long haul. A repeatition of 1983. Party is effectively split, but the grassroots and support base remains loyal or coming back. Crisis of senior leadership. 80's student leaders are effectively in charge. The worst time is probably over, although the coming days may look bad.
Rationale:
BNP strongly believes that they still represent center right and center right in Bangladesh will win fair elections.
Future:
Boycott elections. Party symbol may go to King's party fraction of BNP. Will remain in the street rather alone( May be Jamaat) for at least two years into the new government of 2008. Khaleda family may remain in jail for an indefinite priod. Unofficially party leadership may temporarily be taken over by one of Khaleda's daughter in laws.
Not Clear:
Remains to be seen how they face the wrath of the military government over the coming few months.
BNP ( Kings Part fraction)
Current status: Dismal
Rationale: Dismal
Future: Dismal
Not Clear: What the hell they were thinking.
Jamaat
Current Status:
Not too bad. Leadership are more or less free.
Rationale:
Why they went into offensive regarding 1971? The rationale is crystal clear now. It happened suddenly after Jamaat meeting with CEC. CEC has been talking like a center-left political leader over the last few weeks. He was more Awami League than Awami league leaders during his meeting with AL. During his meeting with Jamaat he gave strong hints that he may try to bar jamaat leaders from participating in polls on the ground of war crime. Jamaat leader, foreseeing a court battle on war crime issue, started a denial campaign. It was intended only to make the court room fight easy.
Future:
Bad time is coming. CTG may use the Jamaat war crime court battle as a layer of smoke screen and keep the awami league intellectual force happy. If war crime becomes a strong issue, jamaat will change leadership and induct Bangladesih generation like ATM Azaharul islam and kamaruzzaman.
Not Clear:
Jamaats joining hands with BNP mainstream will be a big boost for BNP and help BNP keep the street agitation going during the coming bad days. Question, will jamaat return the favor to BNP?
JP (Ershad):
Current Status: Hopeless
Rationale: Hopeless
Future: Hopeless
Not clear: Who is Ershad's current active wife?
6 Responses to "Political Roundup November 2007"
- bitterboy Says:
November 8, 2007 at 10:59 pmRumi, I liked your humor about Jatio party/Ershad: Not clear who is Ershad's current active wife? But I guess, neither of them are active becuase I believe but not sure, he[ERSHAD} himself maybe inactive in his SLP.
And What about GMUA! I'm not sure about who will be the prime player after June 2008 when Moeen is slated to be retired. Will he then be an active player or be passive enough handing over power or compelled by, to MASUD.
In other thread Jyoti commented GMUA is a very smart guy. But I believe too much of anything is bad/Aati Chaalaker Golaye Dori.
Thanks.
- tacit Says:
November 8, 2007 at 11:21 pmI just wanted to clarify, as far as I know, due to his promotion to General, Moeen does not have to officially retire until June 2010. Did you mean he's going to voluntarily retire?
- DhakaShohor Says:
November 9, 2007 at 12:21 am"BNP ( Kings Part fraction)
Current status: Dismal
Rationale: Dismal
Future: Dismal
Not Clear: What the hell they were thinking."onek din dhorey eto haashi nai!
xanthis Says:
November 9, 2007 at 12:47 amBNP's 'Not Clear' can be like…
"How many cards this junta will play on the party and how those will fail."
Cards Junta has played so far:
1. Mannan Bhuiyan.
2. Bodru.
3. Midnight Coup. (Nishi Raate Churi)
(i) Paban's Arrest.
(ii) Heckling Delwar.
(iii) Playing Hafiz & Saifur.
4. Ill interpretation of Nov 3's coup.
5. Col. Rashid.
6. CEC Shamsul Huda.Possible Cards:
1. Relating Zia in Mujib's murder case.
2. Another interview of any Mujib's murderer.
3. A Statement from Ershad relating any issue.
4. Releasing some anti-KZ crooks from jail.- xanthis Says:
November 9, 2007 at 12:50 amDiversions those this regime has played.
1. Yaba raids.
2. FDC raids.
3. Dramatic Judicial Separation.
4. ….
5. …. - Asaad Says:
November 9, 2007 at 7:30 amNow looking back, I would consider KZ's decision not to leave Bangladesh was a major turning point for BNP and its supporter. Second major point is court cases against her and her family has been proven to be farce to BNP supporters. Given these two factors, supporters conscious remain clear about KZ and her family. These effectively keep them united.
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